A suggestion for a mathematical approach to the problem of the effect of climatic factors on health

Abstract

It is suggested that the effect of sudden temperature changes upon the organism may be due to the variation of two factors, whose rates of changes are functions of the temperature. It is assumed that the variations of the two factors follow differential equations which are formally identical with those of the two-factor theory of excitation, and in which the temperature formally plays the role of the stimulus. By proper choice of the parameters the two factors are made equal for any constant temperature. Assuming that the greater the absolute value of the difference of the two factors, the greater is the instability of the organism, and the greater is its susceptibility to disease, relations between the suddenness of temperature changes and disease incidence are derived. The incidence of weather-affected disease for a given period of time is found to be a linear function of the mean hourly temperature variation during that period, a relation which can be in principle verified.