A sufficient cause based approach to the assessment of mediation

Abstract

The minimal sufficient cause (MSC) model, also known as the sufficient component cause model, has been used to facilitate understanding of several key concepts in epidemiology. To improve the understanding of mediation, we introduce a causal model for mediation that is grounded in the MSC approach. First, we describe an unbiased model for mediation, to clarify the causal meaning of previously described indirect effects. Through the use of potential outcomes and response types, we express each indirect (and direct) effect in terms of component causes within the MSC model. Second, we use an MSC-based model to illustrate a common cause of the mediator and outcome, i.e. a confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship. By describing this potential source of bias within the MSC-based model, important complexities are noted that impact the magnitude of plausible confounding. In conclusion, an MSC-based approach leads to several important insights concerning the interpretation of indirect and direct effects, as well as the potential sources of bias in mediation analysis.