A Study on the Technology Diffusion of China’s Solar Photovoltaic Based on Bass and Generalized Bass Model

Abstract

China’s solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation has been developing rapidly and is in a priority position in the national energy strategy. In order to effectively coordinate the development scale, speed of solar PV and economic development, the Chinese government has constantly issued various solar PV development plans. However, as a new renewable energy generation technology, solar PV is still making technological innovation to achieve technological breakthroughs. In addition, external factors, such as resource potential and power grid consumption capacity, will influence its development. It is very important to explore the development path of solar PV in China and analyze the action mechanism of each influencing factor on the development path of solar PV. Based on the technology diffusion model, this study analyzes and predicts the technology diffusion trend of solar PV generation in China. The research finds: that 1) cost is still a big obstacle facing the large-scale development of PV generation at present; that 2) national economic operation, policy incentive intensity and other factors have limited influence on the development of solar PV generation; that 3) technological innovation and power grid absorption capacity are key factors affecting the development path of solar PV.