A Study on the Risks of Real Estate Investment

Abstract

This paper examines the risks associated with real estate investment, leveraging Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) introduced by Harry Markowitz and later applied to real estate by Nigel Dubben and Sarah Sayce. MPT emphasizes balancing expected returns and risk through diversification, crucial in real estate due to its low correlation with other assets and its inflation-hedging properties. Despite global economic integration increasing systemic risks, real estate remains a key asset class for risk management. The literature review highlights traditional strategies focusing on diversifying by property type and geographic location. Studies show mixed results: some suggest property type diversification yields higher returns, while others find geographic diversification more effective for risk mitigation. Chinese market studies reveal that real estate investments can provide predictable returns and act as a hedge during economic downturns. Research on Beijing and Shanghai supports the effectiveness of geographic diversification within China. Applying MPT to real estate, the paper demonstrates through case studies how investment combinations can balance risk and returns. It discusses the Efficient Frontier, CAPM, and Arbitrage Pricing Theory to illustrate the relationship between risk and return in real estate portfolios. The analysis concludes that diversification strategies, though complex, are essential for optimizing performance and mitigating risks in real estate investments.