Abstract
According to the tourism income and GDP data of Gaochun district from year 2001 to 2011, by using ADF unit root test, it can draw to a conclusion that the series of the economic growth (GDP) and the tourism revenue (TOUR) of Gaochun district shows first-order difference stationary. This paper confirms that there is a long-term integration relationship between the economic growth of Gaochun and tourism revenue and study the dynamic coherence between economic growth and tourism revenue by using error correction model and dynamic conditional correlation. As is shown by the Granger causality test, “GDP of Gaochun is the Granger reason for tourism revenue” while “tourism revenue is not the Granger reason for GDP”.
Highlights
With the rapid development of economy and the improvement of the level of material life, as the emerging industry of the tertiary industry, tourism plays a more important role in economic growth
In order to better grasp the status of tourism in the economy of Gaochun District, this paper firstly studies the input structure and associated effect between tourism and other industries
1) the time series of the tourism revenues and economic development of Gaochun District is nonstationary, it is stationary after first difference
Summary
With the rapid development of economy and the improvement of the level of material life, as the emerging industry of the tertiary industry, tourism plays a more important role in economic growth. Gaochun district takes tourism as a new economic growth point in the Twelve-Five planning and develops tourism energetically It has very important theoretical and practical value to study the relationship between tourism and economic growth and the regional industry correlation effect. Foreign researches on relationship between tourism and economic growth can be traced back to Bodio’s [1] analysis on tourist consumption in Italy, later, Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda [2] analyzed the first quarter data of year 1975 to 1997 by using the econometric model test for Spain and got a result that there is a long-term stable relationship between tourism development and economic. This paper researches on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth of Gaochun district based on the VAR model, co-integration theory and the data of year 2001 to 2011, and aims to provide some empirical materials for researches on tourism and economic growth of country’s economy. The Current Situation of Tourism and the Economic Structure of Gaochun District
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