A study on the factors influencing the adoption of urban air mobility and the future demand: Using the stated preference survey for three UAM operational scenarios in South Korea

Abstract

This study analyzed commuters’ intention to use urban air mobility (UAM) and the future demand for UAM based on its service characteristics and the personal characteristics of the potential users. The Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) was selected as the study area as it is expected to have the highest demand for UAM in South Korea. Three UAM operation scenarios were set: short-distance intra-city trips, long-distance intra-city trips, and inter-city trips. Five alternatives were assumed for the stated preference (SP) survey: bus, subway, taxi, private car, and UAM. Six alternative-specific variables were selected: access time, waiting time, boarding time, cost, autonomous mode, and the presence of other passengers. An online survey of 300 residents of SMA was conducted with 100 residents for each scenario. The residents were briefed on the modes of transportation and service characteristic of alternatives. The analysis results were as follows: (1) cost and access time significantly influenced the intention to use UAM in all scenarios. However, the effects of waiting time, boarding time, and autonomous driving on intention to use UAM differed based on the scenarios; (2) the individual characteristics of potential users had varying effects on their preference for UAM depending on the scenarios and the means of transportation, which was a counterpart to UAM. (3) The probability of choosing UAM for commuting was expected to be 10–20%, with the highest modal split for long-distance intra-city trips and the lowest modal split for short-distance intra-city trips. Among the six alternative-specific variables, autonomous driving and cost had the most significant effect on the change of the probability for using UAM. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for designing an effective strategy for the introduction of UAM in South Korea.