A Study on the Dynamic Causal Relationship between Housing Price and Housing Trading Volume

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the characteristics of the housing market that differs by region by analyzing the correlation between the housing prices and the transaction volume of seven major cities including Seoul. For the analysis, apartment transaction volume and sales price index of Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan were used. The data was monthly data released by the Korea Appraisal Board and from January 2006 to December 2019. Analytical methods were performed by Granger causality tests, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The empirical results of the study can be summarized as follows. First, it is possible to confirm that the sale price and the volume of the house are operating in a positive correlation, but differs depending on the characteristics of the housing market in the area. This suggests that, as suggested in the previous study, price fluctuations affect trade volume fluctuations and trade volume fluctuations have mutual causal effects on price fluctuations. However, only Daegu and Incheon are identified as two-way correlations. Second, an increase in sales prices leads to an increase in trading volume in the short term, while the increase in trading volume is not significant for fluctuations in sales price. Third, as a result of variance decomposition analysis, that the impact of price on the volume of trade is relatively higher than the impact on price on volume. In areas where trade prices and volume have a mutual influence on trade volume change, explanatory power increased from short to long term.