A Study on the Drift Prediction Method of Wrecked Fishing Vessels at Sea

Abstract

The drift motion of a wrecked target at sea is caused by the combined effect of wind, wave and current loads on the object. A suitable drift prediction model can accurately calculate the drift trajectory of the wrecked target in the marine environment. The purpose of this paper is to explore the accuracy of different drift prediction models for the calculation of drift trajectories of fishing vessels and to make an evaluation. First, the AP98 leeway model and the drifting dynamics model were introduced, and an improved drift prediction model was proposed based on their characteristics and principles. Then, based on the measured data obtained from the drift experiments of fishing vessels in the South China Sea, the drift parameters of the three drift prediction models were calibrated, thus three drift prediction models for fishing vessels in the South China Sea were established. Finally, the simulated drift trajectories of fishing vessels at sea were calculated using three drift prediction models and compared with the actual drift trajectories. Results showed that the improved drift prediction model has the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the AP98 leeway model, while the drifting dynamics model has the worst accuracy. The results of this paper can be directly applied to the drift prediction of wrecked fishing vessels in the South China Sea region.