A Study on the Annualized Medical Expense Prediction Model of the Bureau of National Healthy Insurance--The Application of the Grey Prediction Theory

Abstract

This paper attempts to employ the grey prediction to predict different types of medical expenses. And then we try to derive from that, which of them play the decisive role for the financial difficulty of Taiwan's National Health Insurance. Therefore, by using the National Health Insurance expenses announced in the annual statistical reports by the Department of Health between the year 2002 and 2005 as research samples, this paper applies the grey model (1,1) to predict different medical expenses in 2006, and figure out the factors having the most important influence on these different medical expenses. On annual medical expenses the medical expense of emergency treatments has the most important influence. Among 8 types of medical institutions, medical expenses of local hospitals' outpatient services and hospitalizations have the most important influence on the total amount of the medical expenses of outpatient services and hospitalizations. The medical expenses of Chinese medicine outpatient services have more important influence than that of western medicine and dental outpatient services on total amount of outpatient medical expenses. The medical expenses for males' three types of outpatient services have more important influence than that of females. The medical expenses for the age group of 65 and over have the more important influence on all three types of outpatient services than that for other age groups.