A Study on Spatial and Temporal Dynamic Changes of Desertification in Northern China from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Desertification is of significant concern as one of the world’s most serious ecological and environmental problems. China has made great achievements in afforestation and desertification control in recent years. The climate varies greatly across northern China. Using a long-time series of remote sensing data to study the effects of desertification will further the understanding of China’s desertification control engineering and climate change mechanisms. The moist index was employed in this research to determine the climate type and delineate the potential occurrence range of desertification in China. Then, based on the Google Earth Engine platform, MODIS data were used to construct various desertification monitoring indicators and applied to four machine learning models. By comparing different combinations of indicators and machine learning models, it was concluded that the random forest model with four indicator combinations had the highest accuracy of 86.94% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.84. Therefore, the random forest model with four indicator combinations was used to monitor desertification in the study area from 2000 to 2020. According to our studies, the area of desertification decreased by more than 237,844 km2 between 2000 and 2020 due to the impact of human activities and in addition to climatic factors such as the important role of precipitation. This research gives a database for the cause and control of desertification as well as a reference for national-scale desertification monitoring.