Abstract

This paper presents a study on predicting coalbed methane (CBM) production based on reservoir properties. Two hundred numerical models with different reservoir properties which are generated by a Monte Carlo method are numerically simulated using a compositional simulator. Empirical equations are built to estimate the gas recovery, peak gas rate, time to peak gas rate and gas production decline rates by analysing the relationships between reservoir properties and gas production rates. The peak gas rate, time to peak gas rate and gas production decline rates are used in the rate–time fit equation to predict the gas production rate. Results show that the combination of the modified Morse potential energy equation and the exponential decline equation can be used to fit the gas production for the entire production period of CBM wells. The regression coefficients between the calculated and numerical simulated gas recovery, logarithmic peak gas rate and logarithmic time to peak gas rate are 0.82, 0.86 and 0.80, respectively. New relationships between the time to peak gas rate and the decline parameters are presented in this paper.

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