Abstract

This paper presents an estimation method of operating lifetime for electric power components, such as electric poles and pole transformers, utilizing massive records on their inspection and mainten...

Highlights

  • Japan is well known as one of the countries with the fewest power outages and the fast recovery of them

  • In order to achieve the stable operations of electric power grids, power grid operators have been making inspection and maintenance for electric power equipment and its components such as electric poles, pole transformers and switchgears

  • We can comprehend judgement criteria of the lifetime estimation visually. This method is aiming to apply on expansion planning phase of the power grid and or its equipment, so that it estimates the operating lifetime when the initial conditions are newly input

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Summary

Introduction

Japan is well known as one of the countries with the fewest power outages and the fast recovery of them. There is still plenty room for discussion on how to utilize the massive records, and what kinds of techniques are suitable for analyzing and/or utilizing them For these reasons, applications of the inspection and the maintenance records are limited yet in a small portion of the actual operations and planning in the power grid [2]. Initial information of the target component, such as type, size and locational conditions, and historical records of the inspection results and the taking measures for the results are used in the former (analysis process) In the latter, the tree-like decision models are constructed to estimate the operating lifetime of the target components. We can comprehend judgement criteria of the lifetime estimation visually This method is aiming to apply on expansion planning phase of the power grid and or its equipment, so that it estimates the operating lifetime when the initial conditions are newly input. There are various causes in the concrete deterioration, and they become difficult to estimate the operating lifetime relying on only knowledge and experience of the power grid operators [6,7]

Estimation conditions
Definition of operating lifetime and its average
Target data
Estimation method
Outline of decision tree model
Classification and regression tree algorithm
Random forest
Results of classification tree
Result of regression tree
Disclosure statement
Conclusion
Notes on contributors
Full Text
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