Abstract
Based on the past studies regarding the insolation fluctuation, the smoothing effect of insolation among different locations would not be enough for the longer cycle than a few ten minutes. This study evaluated the maximum fluctuation width (MFW) within at most 120 min of ensemble average insolation of 40 points, its clearness index, and ensemble average insolation excluding sun-position dependent component. As the results, when the weather condition became worse after the noon in almost all area, the ensemble average insolation significantly reduced, resulting in MFW of 540W/m2 within 120 min. As other example, when the weather recovered during the morning in many areas, MFW was also large. By using the data observed for 6 months, this study calculated the cumulative frequency distribution of MFW of ensemble average insolation, its clearness index, and ensemble average insolation excluding sun-position dependent component. As the results, the absolute value of MFW of ensemble average insolation calculated with 120 min width window ranges mainly between 200-300W/m2. The absolute value of MWF of insolation excluding sun-position dependent component evaluated with 120 min width window is smaller than 200W/m2 in most days, and is not so different from MWF evaluated with 60 min width window. Finally, this study discussed the practical usability of insolation forecast.
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