A study on disease dynamics of covid-19 in different states of India: A data driven analysis of the available evidence

Abstract

Backgrounds: Case Fatality Ratios (C.F.R.) in neighbouring countries recently varied widely, with highest being in Afghanistan (2.43%), followed by Pakistan (2.05%), Bangladesh (1.26%), Sri Lanka (0.54%), Maldives (0.38%), and Nepal (0.21%). This study–based on analysis of COVID-19 data from India, was undertaken to investigate into the inter-state differentials in active case rates, recovery rates & CFRs, role of selected demographic risk variables on case-load and trends in active cases in top 10 most affected States. Material & methods: COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, recovered (cured) cases, deaths and active cases from Indian States, as on 27th October 2020, were down loaded from the official website of the Government of India. Data on selected demographic risk variables of COVID-19 disease were also obtained from country’s 2011 Census. Such data were analyzed for case-loads, case- rates and weekly growth in active cases to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: Active case load was 68 per 1,00,000 population in top 10 highly affected States by COVID-19, as compared to rest of the Indian States (28 per 1,00,000 population), with C.F.R. (weighted average) being 1.71 % and 1.38 % in the two groups of States respectively. COVID-19 active cases were highest-around 301 per 1,00,000 population in Puducherry, followed by Kerala (281/1,00,000 population), Ladakh (252/1,00,000 population) and Goa (173/1,00,000 population). The best State amongst 10 highly affected States for COVID-19 was Uttar Pradesh with minimum active case load of 13 per 1,00,000 population, followed by Odisha (37/1,00,000 population), Tamil Nadu (41 per 1,00,000 population) whereas, in rest of the States of the country, best State was Dadra Nagar & Haveli and Daman & Diu (with active case load of 9/1,00,000 population), followed by Bihar (9/1,00,00 population), Madhya Pradesh (15/1,00,000) and then Punjab (15/1,00,000). Furthermore, Kerala, Delhi, Karnataka and West Bengal were worse in controlling the COVID-19 disease. Conclusion: Spread of COVID-19 disease has been steady and consistent throughout the country. Major burden of disease has been from 10 most affected States. COVID-19 case load increased almost continuously in different States but growth of the disease in them was slower-indicating better condition of the disease dynamics in our country than in many other countries of the world. It however, needs intense efforts from us to contain the disease in our country