A Study on Disabling Injuries Prediction of Taiwan Occupational Disaster with Grey Rolling Model

Chun-Ling Ho,Yu-Sheng Lin,Muhammet Gul

doi:10.1155/2022/1306602

Chun-Ling Ho, Yu-Sheng Lin + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1306602

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Abstract

In order to protect the safety and health of laborers and to achieve the goal of zero occupational accidents at work, the study takes the top three industries with the highest number of laborers inspections from 2010 to 2019, namely, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail as the research object. Using three major indicators of disability injury including Disabling Frequency Rate, Disabling Severity Rate, and Frequency Severity Indicator as parameters, it applies grey theory to establish a GM (1,1) rolling forecast model. It further predicts the trend of disability injuries from 2020 to 2025. Based on the optimized GM (1,1) rolling model, the results show that there has the highest accuracy rate in the prediction of Disabling Frequency Rate (accuracy is 95.235% in K7) in construction. Disabling Severity Rate and Frequency Severity Indicator are both in wholesale and retail industries (accuracy is 97.044% in K6 and accuracy is 99.906% in K5). Therefore, Disabling Severity Rate has an upward trend, which is due to the common type of traffic accidents in the wholesale and retail industry. The study further proposes that relevant actual disaster cases could be the training materials and strengthen the communication in education to improve workers’ safety awareness for occupational disaster prevention.

Highlights

E Occupational Safety and Health Act [2] and the relevant provisions of the Occupational Safety and Health Education and Training Rules mentioned that enterprises should arrange workers to take training according to their job attributes. e types can be divided into 13 types, including special operators, supervisors of occupational safety and hazardous work, operators of dangerous machinery, and other safety and health education training. e cumulative average number of people in the past 10 years accounted for more than 80% [1]. at is, from 2010 to 2019, the number of people taking education and training has increased from 131,714 to 212,843 [1], which shows the implementation of safety training in enterprises
Occupational disasters are direct hazards to laborers at work and indirectly affect the overall social security and national economic development. e prevention system and safety inspection of occupational disasters are the focus for the governments
The serious rate of occupational disasters in Taiwan is still high compared with foreign countries, such as falling in construction industries

Summary

Introduction

E causes of occupational disasters and safety management have always been the key issues of concern in various industries. More than 70% of the affected workers have not taken relevant occupational safety training. E Occupational Safety and Health Act [2] and the relevant provisions of the Occupational Safety and Health Education and Training Rules mentioned that enterprises should arrange workers to take training according to their job attributes. At is, from 2010 to 2019, the number of people taking education and training has increased from 131,714 to 212,843 [1], which shows the implementation of safety training in enterprises. Labor inspections are one of the effective prevention methods for occupational disasters [3].

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