Abstract
Hai Duong is a province in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam, with a GDP of 3020 USD/year. Its economy depends mainly on natural conditions, especially agriculture. In the context of climate change, drought will be a natural disaster that greatly affects the economy and agriculture is no exception. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient evaluation method and building multi-linear regression equations, a good correlation was found between total evaporation and total monthly rainfall, monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature and monthly minimum temperature. This is the basis for calculating potential future evaporation based on climate change scenarios. Calculating the drought index K with the input data of climate change scenarios for Vietnam, this analysis has calculated the drought evolution for the three driest months of the year (12, first, 2) for the period 2021- 2050 in Hai Duong province. Results show that with both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), the drought index K is at drought and very high drought levels. The drought level in RCP 8.5 is higher than in RCP 4.5 while the drought level at Chi Linh meteorological station is 1.4-1.5 times higher than that at Hai Duong meteorological station. It emerges that drought is clearly cyclical with the drought scenario RCP 8.5 which reaches its maximum every 9-10 years.
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