A study of the system dynamics coupling model of the driving factors for multi-scale land use change

Abstract

The study of multi-scale land use change, as well as the coupling mechanism of multi-scale land use change and its driving factors, has important scientific and technological significance for the drawing up of land use planning and land resources allocation optimization. In this paper, the concepts of the core structure relationships of coupling models and the characteristics of a coupling system for the driving factors of spatial multi-scale land use change are discussed first. Then, the feasibility of the development of the models is discussed. Next, the core methods used to establish the coupling models are described. To elaborate upon the research, organic, bottom-to-top and interconnecting three-level-scale regions in Yunnan Province, Kunming City and Yiliang County are selected. Based on the constructed system dynamics and coupling model, this paper completed the reproduction, tracking and simulation of the temporal behavior of the coupling system and determined the interactional and correlative coupling mechanisms among the land use type changes and their core driving factors, from 1999 to 2008. The results of the simulation and test of the coupling model have shown that the mean relative error is −0.155 %, and samples with relative error values distributed in the range (−3.91, 4.98 %) account for 90.3 % of the total samples. This study suggests that the coupling model of spatial multi-scale driving factors could reflect the land use change and the coupling mechanism of its multi-scale driving factors with high simulation accuracy.