A Study of the Iranian Economic Growth by Using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model

This research examines Malaysian exports, capital, exchange rate, and income growth through the balance of payments constrained growth model. Malaysia's economy has grown slower in the last several years, as seen by the country's dropping goods exports, weaker ringgit, and decreased influx of foreign capital. This study examines potential economic constraints on Malaysia using the extended Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) model, which calculates GDP growth by adding exports, foreign capital positions (FDI and FPI), and exchange rates using quarterly data from 2011 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is used to estimate the model, and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) are used to assess the model's robustness. The BPCG model places Malaysia's growth rate at 7.3%, which is higher than the country's actual growth rate of 4.6% for the research period. Policymakers should accelerate the New Industrial Master Plan and National Investment Master Plan 2030 to optimise this potential. These efforts aim to boost economic growth by sustaining foreign capital inflows and exports. Through comprehensive trade agreements, authorities should boost exports, market access, and global economic development.

Abstract. This study examines the long-term and short-term balance relationship of GDP, Foreign Direct Investment to the performance of nonoil exports in KSA within the framework of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis: Evidence from ARDL, VECM and a smaller evaluation according to Vision 2030. We performed an analysis for the period from 1970 to 2019 by an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and checked the robustness of the results in the vector error correction (VECM) model. The co-integration and Toda - Yamamoto causality analysis are conducted by using two techniques of vector error correction model (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The main findings are: Foreign direct investment can increase GDP growth rates by increasing non-oil exports in the Saudi economy according to the results of the Toda - Yamamoto Causality Test; and the GDP in the Saudi economy are affected by FDI and the rates of non-oil exports, in the long and short term, and the reason is the strength of the reserves of the Saudi economy. The contribution of this research is that the outcomes found by means of econometric models can be used for predicting and measuring GDP in upcoming years, can get a guideline from this research To the economic policy makers in Saudi Arabia. Also, the dynamic interaction among FDI, non-oil exports, and economic growth is investigated using the ARDL. The ARDL co-integration results showed that GDP, FDI and non-oil exports are co-integrated, indicating the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Besides, the results for the relationship between GDP, FDI and Non-Oil Exports are interesting and indicate that there is no significant from variables and vice-versa using Toda-Yamamoto causality. Keywords. GDP, FDI, Non-oil exports, Stationary, Toda-Yamamoto Test, VECM, ARDL. JEL. D42, D43, H21, L12, L13.

This paper investigates the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of regression analysis. The study describes the trend of oil and non-oil export in Nigeria, examines the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth and identifies adequate policy measures and suggestions based on the research findings, towards reducing the undesirable effects of export instability in Nigeria. Secondary data from various sources were used in the study. Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique was adopted in testing Unit root property of the series. Using the Ordinary Least Squares regression method, the study first examines the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth with the aid of aggregated and disaggregated models. It further uses the Granger causality test to examine the direction of causality between GDP and export earnings (using the same aggregated and disaggregated models). From the result obtained in the regression of the disaggregated model, R 2 is 0.954. This indicates that oil and non-oil exports actually account for 95.4% of the total variation in economic growth during the years under study. A percentage increase in oil export will cause about 4% economic growth (0.042785), which is statistically significant at all levels. A percentage increase in non-oil export will cause an economic growth of about 10.4%, at 10 per cent level of significance. Also, with a positive and significant value of the intercept, the result indicates that GDP does not only depend on oil and non-oil export, as other variables affect the GDP. The F- Statistics 316.9, which is a measure of the joint significance of the explanatory variables, is found to be statistically significant as indicated by the corresponding probability value 0.0000, and the Durbin-Watson statistics of 1.90, which is in the neighborhood of 2 indicates that there is no autocorrelation. The Granger Causality test of the disaggregated model shows that both Oil and non-oil exports actually granger causes GDP. It also show that non-oil exports granger cause Oil exports. It was found that of all export earnings in Nigeria, oil export has stronger grasp in terms of economic growth compared with the non-oil exports. It was also found that export earnings, from both oil and the non-oil sectors, affects economic growth in Nigeria, and not otherwise. Thus policies geared towards the development of the oil and non-oil sectors will have a positive effect on the economy and thereby resulting to an increase in the gross domestic

This study comparatively investigated the relative impacts of oil and non-oil exports on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1981 to 2023. An ex-post facto research design was used. Multiple regression analysis was adopted, in which the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was applied. The results showed the presence of long-run relationships among the variables (GDP, oil exports, non-oil exports, and inflation rate), indicating that about 11% of the short-run imbalance is corrected every year. Further findings revealed that oil exports have a positive impact on Nigeria’s GDP in both the short and long runs, while non-oil exports have a negative impact on Nigeria’s GDP in both the short and long runs. The finding that non-oil exports have a negative impact on Nigeria’s economic growth is quite surprising, given the general expectation that diversification away from oil dependence should foster economic expansion. This unexpected outcome constitutes a major contribution of the study, as it challenges the prevailing notion that promoting non-oil exports automatically enhances growth. This research concludes that oil exports have more impact on Nigeria’s economic growth than non-oil exports over the studied period. The study therefore recommends, among others, that the Nigerian government should stabilize and strengthen oil export earnings by investing in upstream oil production and infrastructure, and diversify its non-oil exports by focusing on processed and value-added commodities for increased economic growth.

The relationship between trade openness and foreign direct investment in the economic growth in Nigeria has been a subject of debate in most economic literature. The study, therefore, looked at the effect of trade openness and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria within a temporal scope between 1986 and 2021. The study made use of the Solow growth model and thus included the unemployment rate as a moderating variable along with the segregation of exports component of trade openness into oil and non-oil exports. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was employed as the method of analysis and it was discovered that non-oil export had a positive and significant effect on economic growth while oil export had a positive but insignificant relationship with economic growth. The unemployment rate was found to have an insignificant and negative effect on economic growth in Nigeria. However, foreign direct investment was found to be positive and insignificant. The study also discovered that there is no long-run co-integrating equilibrium relationship between trade openness, FDI, unemployment rate, and economic growth. Thus it was suggested that there was a need for more funds to be allocated to the non-oil productive sector of the economy so as to boost productivity from the sector and as well as to reduce the unemployment rate

This study examined the causality between non-oil export, financial sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed credit to private sector, total bank deposit, prime lending rate, market capitalization, money market instruments as proxy to measure financial sector development, while GDP was used to capture economic growth, using annual data from 1985 to 2015. All the variables were stationary at first difference using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The Johansen Cointegration test result showed that a long-run relationship between non-oil export, financial sector development and economic growth existed. The Granger causality test indicates that a bi-directional causality runs from total bank deposit, credit to the private sector and market capitalization to economic growth. Also, a unidirectional causality existed between prime lending rate and economic growth. The study shows that out of the five proxy for financial sector development, three showed significant causality with economic growth. These findings therefore imply that a bi-directional relationship exists between financial sector development and economic growth, indicating that a growth in the financial sector will cause same in the economy and vice versa. Finally, the study recommends that the government formulate policies that will enhance credit to the private sector, such as not operating the Treasury Single Account (TSA) Policy in a holistic manner, so that banks will have fund to propel their credit delivery function effectively; considering the fact that the public sector drives the Nigerian economy as it stands now. However for capital market development, investors protection policies should be enhanced in order to strengthen and improve public confidence in the capital market, such as reducing charges for the purchase and sale of securities and reduction of listing requirements for new companies on the exchange.

This study examined the effect of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Time series data were used for the study for the period of 1980 to 2019. The result of unit root test shows that data were stationed at level and first difference. The study therefore employed Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to produce short-run and long-run coefficients and Granger Causality Test to achieve the objectives of the study. The result of Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) shows the speed of adjustment (short-run dynamics) indicated by the coefficient of the error correction terms. The coefficient of CointEq(-1) of the model was -0.197580. This shows that the speed of adjustment is approximately 82 percent. The result of the bounds test indicates the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables under study. The finding revealed that oil export and non-oil export has significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study further revealed that there is causal relationship between oil exports and non-oil proceeds on Real Gross Product in Nigeria for the period under study. Based on the findings, the study concludes that both oil export and non-oil exports has significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, recommends the need for government to promote the production and export of non-oil products because the overdependence on oil exports is negatively affecting economic growth. Government can supply funding and infrastructure that would accommodate and support the production of non-oil goods and services for domestic use and exports.

This study investigates the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment between 1981 and 2020. To achieve the broad objective, two specific objectives were set out, viz: investigate the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment; and examine the level of impact of exchange rate volatility on balance of payment in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings of the study show that non-oil exports have had a strong positive impact on Nigeria’s balance of payment within the period under study both in the short and long-run. It shows that a percentage increase in non-oil export increases the balance of payment (surplus) by 31.47 % in the long-run. However, exchange rate was shown to have had a negative blow on Nigeria’s balance of payment, though not statistically significant. The study therefore recommend among others that, for Nigeria to enjoy a surplus balance of payment, which is one of her major macroeconomic goals, there is the need to shift attention to the non-oil sector which has always been the main source of her foreign exchange earnings prior to the discovery of crude oil.

This work investigated the Impact of non-oil exports on Gross Domestics Product (GDP) of Nigeria. The statement of the problem of the study therefore is, how has the non-oil export sector helped to enhance the economic growth of Nigeria, and the major objective the study is to investigate the effects of Non-oil Export on the economic growth in Nigeria. The work employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling techniques analysis used in the study. The findings clearly showed that non-oil export from agricultural commodities and products, craft and manufactured products and solid minerals do not have significant effect on economic growth in the short run but does on the long run during the period under investigation and equally reinforced the fact that non-oil exports have a key role to play with regards to promoting economic growth in Nigeria. The study concluded that non-oil export will enhance economic growth in Nigeria and finally recommended that future policy-makers should aim at promoting adequate agricultural commodities and products, craft and manufactured products and solid minerals exports as this will ensure economic growth in the Nigerian Economy.

Abstract. This paper empirically investigated the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1981 – 2017. To achieve the purpose of this research, we estimated real GDP as a function of imports, exports, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rates and exchange rate. The methods used are: the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques, Augmented Dickey- Fuller unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, error correction technique, and the Granger causality test. The empirical results revealed that: all the variables used are integrated of the same order, 1(1) except for unemployment and gross fixed capital formation which were integrated of order 1(0); also, the bound test revealed that there is evidence of the existence of a long run relationship among the variables used; while the causality test revealed that exports granger causes economic growth in Nigeria. Findings revealed that there is short run impact of export trade on economic growth. Also, causality runs from imports and exports to economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study therefore recommends among other things that: the government should improve on her trade contents and concentrate on the exportation of labour intensive products and as a result, improve economic performance. Keywords. Economic growth, Exports, Factor endowment, Imports, ARDL. JEL. F14, F43.

PurposeThe objective of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between workers' remittances and economic growth in Sri Lanka using time series data spanning 1975–2021.Design/methodology/approachThis study employed both exploratory data analysis (EDA) and inferential data analysis (IDA) tools. EDA includes the scatter plots, confidence ellipse with Kernel fit, whereas IDA covers unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds technique, the Granger's causality test, and impulse response function (IRF) analysis.FindingsEDA confirms that workers' remittances have a positive relationship with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). All variables used in this study are I(1). This study is exhibited that workers' remittances have a positive long-run relationship with per-capita GDP. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term shows that the dependent variable moves towards the long-run equilibrium path. Workers' remittances have a short-run and long-run causal relationship with per-capita GDP. The IRF analysis indicates that a one standard deviation shock to workers' remittances has initially an immediate significant positive impact on economic growth.Practical implicationsThis study provides insights into workers' remittances in economic growth in Sri Lanka. Further, the findings of this study also provide evidence that workers' remittances increase economic growth.Originality/valueUsing ARDL bounds test, Granger's Causality test and IRF analysis for examining the relationship between workers' remittances and economic growth are the originality of this study.

The nexus between renewable energy, economic growth, trade, urbanisation and environmental quality: A comparative study for Australia and Canada

Financial inclusion has become a policy agenda for financial stability and sustainable economic growth for the developing world. However, there seems to be a lack of consensus across the literature on the relationships between financial inclusion, financial stability and economic growth. Given the divergent views, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between financial inclusion, financial stability and economic growth in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In this study, panel data were used for twenty six selected SSA economies and a principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to construct a composite index for financial inclusion. In addition, an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration test was applied to examine the short- and long-run relationships between the variables of interest. Separate and joint Granger causality tests were used to assess the direction of causality. The result of the study indicated that there are both short-run and long-run relationships between financial inclusion, financial stability and economic growth in the SSA countries. Moreover, the Granger causality tests revealed that there are separate two-way causalities and joint uni-directional causalities, indicating complementarity between these variables. It is, therefore, necessary for policy makers, regulators and financial sector advisors to follow a holistic approach while developing and implementing policies and strategies that promote financial inclusion in order to attain sustainable economic growth in the region.

This study evaluated the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021.The variables used in this study comprised of gross domestic product as a dependent variable, while oil exports, non-oil exports, oil imports, non-oil imports and exchange rate are the explanatory variables. The employed variables have different order of integration ranging from zero and one, which led to the application of auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the method of analysis. The ARDL model investigated long-run and short-run interactions among the variables. The results showed evidence of co-integrating equations amongst the variables. Hence, the key findings that satisfied the research objectives are (i) oil exports have significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. (ii) Non-oil exports exerted positive and significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run. (iii). Oil imports negatively and significantly affected the growth rate of the Nigeria’s economy and (iv) non-oil imports affect the economic growth in Nigeria negatively and insignificantly in both the short-run long-run. The results imply that N1 rise in oil exports increases economic growth by N0.089 in the short-run and by N0.376 in the long-run; whereas N1 rise in non-oil exports increases economic growth by N0.047 in the short-run and N0.199 increase in the long-run. However, N1 rise in oil imports, decreases economic growth by N0.019 in the short-run and N0.092 decrease in the long-run; whereas N1 rise in non-oil imports, decreases economic growth by N0.022 in the short-run and N0.92 decrease in the long-run. Based on the findings, the study recommended that Nigerian government should make judicious use of proceeds from export of crude oil to diversify other productive sectors of the economy. Again, the activities of non-oil sectors like agriculture, industry, etc, should be stimulated to enhance non-oil exports in Nigeria.

Exchange rate devaluation is said to have ripple effects on macroeconomic variables. Hence, this study empirically examined how macroeconomic variables responded to currency devaluation in Nigeria: 1986-2016. In other to achieve our aim, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip Peron (PP) stationarity tests were employed to examine the stationarity properties of the variables stated in the model, while Johansen Co-integration test was employed to see if there is a long run relationship among the variables in the model. It was then revealed that, all the variables were integrated of the same order and were stationary at first difference I(1), while the result of the co-integration test revealed that, there is long run relationship among the variables. These therefore necessitates the use of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and Impulse Response in the analysis. The result revealed that, exchange rate devaluation have a positive and significant impact on macroeconomic variables tested, including economic growth in Nigeria. While the impulse response result showed that, real gross domestic product (RGDP), one period lag of exchange rate devaluation, money supply, external reserve, interest rate, balance of payment all responded positively to shocks generated by exchange rate devaluation in the economy; while inflation, trade openness and non-oil export responded negatively. In the same vein, while exchange rate devaluation revealed progressive and noteworthy impact on balance of payment, its impact on non-oil export were found to be negative which is in tandem with the findings from previous studies. It is equally important to state that, even though there are diverse benefits from currency devaluation, but these benefits can only be harnessed when there is improvement in the production of goods and services for both domestic consumption and export purposes.