Abstract
Abstract : Statistics on the frequency of transition between active region classes were calculated and used to derive the expected rate of flaring for the next 2-7 days. Five years of McIntosh active region classifications were analyzed using the newly-developed software called TELSAR (Tracking and EvoLution of Solar Active Regions). The most frequent transitions between these 63 different classes usually involve a single-step change in one of the three classification parameters. The evolution of the classes and the average, single- day flare rate were used to predict flare rates for each class over the next several days. For flares of X-ray class M, these rates can differ from persistence predictions by more than 0.5 flares per day, although a more typical difference is 0.1 flares per day. The rarity of some classes suggests that merging these classes with others may improve flare statistics and thereby improve flare forecasts. (sdw)
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