Abstract
In countries with industrial forests, the first resource for providing domestic timber is their productive forests. Iran, a country that holds a few timber forests in the north, has implemented deterministic programming in the past few decades. Knowing the process of timber production in these forests and also the condition of these products that are affected by the above mentioned programming is very crucial. Therefore, the present study focuses on the timber production of Iran’s northern forests in a 33-year period (from 1978 to 2010), using simple regression analysis and time series. The results of square regression analysis revealed that this process has a significant relationship with the years under study and shows inconsistent changes. Furthermore, the overall inflation in domestic market of Iran has the highest effect on the deterministic programming of its northern forests. To predict timber production in Iran Auto-regressive moving average process 1-2 was employed, verifying the fact that the production rate will decline to about 740 thousand cubic meters. If current trends and decline in timber production continue, Iran would become increasingly dependent on imported timber. To avoid such dependence, or at least reduce it, it is necessary to change the present programming system from deterministic to dynamic, taking into account the internal and external risks in timber market such as inflation and average timber price.
Highlights
In the whole management system of a country, wood industry is considered to play a vital role in people’s life
There are different statistics on the exploitation and forest industry in Iran. This is observable in different resources where the amount of harvest from northern forests of Iran varies; for example, 1.5 million cubic meters in years before 2005 (Asareh, 2008), 750 thousand cubic meters (Jalili et al, 2007) and 4 million cubic meters (Anonymous, 2006) in 2006
The results of changes in Rial value of the produced timber in Iran’s northern forests showed that this value has always had an ascending trend, it strongly rises in the last years of each phase (Figure 2)
Summary
In the whole management system of a country, wood industry is considered to play a vital role in people’s life. Forest resources and their related macro policies are the key factors of optimal management to achieve a sustainable production that is in line with the demand of timber market, known through economic analyses. It is noteworthy that woodmen base their major policy makings on these very figures This knowledge requires reliable data and appropriate techniques for each forest area so that in addition to full knowledge, optimal programming for their exploitation would become possible, especially for the coming years (Mohammadi Limaei, 2006; 2010; Kehinde, 2010)
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