A Study of Storm Surge Disasters Based on Extreme Value Distribution Theory

Abstract

ABSTRACT Yang, S.; Liu, X.; Liu, Q.; Guan, L.; Lee, J.M., and Jung, K.H., 2017. A study of storm surge disasters based on extreme value distribution theory. In this study, a statistical model was set up using extreme value distribution theory to estimate the return periods for both the highest surge levels and the adjusted direct economic losses from storm surge disasters based on the historical database. The extreme value distribution theory has been widely applied in hydrology and coastal engineering, and one well-performing extreme distribution is the Gumbel distribution. Based on the Gumbel distribution, three parameter estimation methods were used to determine the best method for generating the Gumbel distribution functions; subsequently, the expressions for the return periods were derived. The least square method was identified as the best parameter-estimation method for this study. Comparisons were implemented among return periods of the highest surge levels with the adjusted direct economic loss, ...