A Study of Production, Stock Prices and Self‐Organized Criticality

Abstract

The theory of self‐organized criticality (SOC) suggests that interdependencies and interactions among components of a system cause the system to perpetually organize itself towards a critical state. A small change in the value of any component of the system can affect the entire system (like a domino effect). Using SOC theory, we develop hypotheses to associate changes in a firm's production level and its stock prices. Change in performance and stock prices is theorized to vary positively with change in production below the critical level of production (called sub‐critical production), and vary negatively above the critical level of production (called supra‐critical production). Increasing (decreasing) economies of scale operate during sub (supra) critical levels of production. Change in production level from either the sub‐critical or supra‐critical level is posited to take the firm towards the critical production level. There are two reasons to investigate changes in production level: first, prior market research has not fully explained changes in stock prices, and, second, production (as modeled in microeconomic theory as a system of interacting input factors) provides an appealing case to investigate its SOC character. If presence of SOC‐like behavior for production process is observed, then statistical properties of critical states of production can be studied to provide better prediction abilities. Market evaluations of production‐related changes imply that change in production is a fundamental economic triggering process that can explain variations in stock prices. The results, based on analyzing 40 quarters of data, generally support the hypotheses that change in stock prices are associated with changes in production level, and that stock prices fall (rise) when the firm operates in supra (sub) critical production levels.