A study of operational safety risk identification of a cascade reservoir group (I)——Bayesian network-based risk identification for cascade hydropower stations

Abstract

Flood risk is impacted by the characteristics of the “group” after the reservoirs in the river basin become a reservoir group. On the one hand, through reasonable disposal, flood risks can be resolved and the capability to defend against the flooding of a river basin can be improved. On the other hand, if flood risks cannot be properly resolved, once one reservoir of a cascade reservoir group collapses, the downstream cascade reservoirs will likely collapse one after another, leading to a greater disaster. Based on the cascade reservoir group of the Dadu River Basin, this paper focuses on the risk of cascade reservoirs, the methods of “Cascade hydropower station risk system decomposition identification based on safe operation requirements” and “Identification of key risk factors and key risk propagation path of a cascade hydropower station” have been proposed and applied with success to risk identification in a cascade reservoir power station on the Dadu River. The results suggest that it is feasible and convenient to apply the described methods to identify risk of a cascade hydropower station system, thereby offering important guidance to the planning, design, and operation management of cascade reservoirs in a drainage basin.