A study of macroeconomic variables that effected employment in the United States from 1948 to 2021

Abstract

The paper provides an analysis of important U.S. macroeconomic variables that effect aggregate employment. The paper seeks to answer the question “What are the deter¬minants of changes in aggregate employment in the United States of America (U.S.)?” This is an important research topic because significant increases in unemployment can have a profound effect on an entire society, not just on its unemployed workers. When employment declines, public health declines, crime increases, suicides increase, and public revenues decrease. This paper uses quarterly data from 1948-2021 to estimate the effect of important macroeconomic variables on aggregate employment. The macroeconomic variables include personal consumption expenditures, U.S. federal government expenditures, nominal GNP, international trade (imports plus exports), M3 money stock, the mini-mum wage level, non-residential fixed investment, non-manufacturing employment, and U.S. federal tax receipts.