A study of inadequate consumer demand among Chinese residents —based on data for urban and rural areas in different provinces

Abstract

本文运用1995-2005年中国除西藏和台湾外30个省、自治区和直辖市城乡面板数 据建立随机效应模型对中国城乡居民消费需求的影响因素分别进行计量分析，结果发 现：中国居民人均可支配收入与居民人均消费支出高度相关，且在这11年里中国城乡 居民消费函数相对稳定。在这个发现的基础上，本文又进一步运用1992-2004年中国 的资金流量表（实物交易）数据，解释了1997-1998年以来中国居民消费需求持续低 迷的原因之一是在国民收入分配和再分配过程中，政府在总收入和可支配收入中占有 的份额越来越大，而居民占有的份额不断下降。 关键词: 随机效应模型 中国居民消费 居民收入 政府收入 Using panel data from both urban and rural areas in China's thirty provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (Tibet excluded) from 1995 to 2005 and applying the random effects model, we conducted a quantitative analysis of factors influencing urban and rural consumer demand. The findings show the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents is highly correlated with their per capita consumption expenditure and the consumption function of urban and rural residents was relatively stable over the eleven years under study. On the basis of these findings, this paper further makes use of data in China's funds flow statements (physical transactions) from 1992 to 2004 to explain one of the reasons for the continuing under‐consumption since 1997–1998; that is, in the course of national income distribution and redistribution the government has gained an ever increasing share of total and disposable income while the share of Chinese residents shows a continuous decline.