Abstract
Simulating and predicting the development and changes in urban land change can provide valuable references for the sustainable development of cities. However, the change process of urban land-use/land-cover is a complex process involving multiple factors and multiple relationships. This dilemma makes it very challenging to accurately simulate the results and to make predictions. In response to this problem, we started with the physical characteristics of the land-use/land-cover change process and constructed a diffusion equation to simulate and predict urban land-use/land-cover changes. The diffusion equation is used to describe the diffusion characteristics of the land-use/land-cover change process, which helps to understand the urban land-use/land-cover change process. The experimental results show that (1) the diffusion equation we constructed can simulate urban land-use/land-cover changes, (2) the simulation process of the model is not limited by the time interval of the time series data itself, and (3) the model only requires one parameter without other constraints.
Highlights
To explore the law of the land-use/land-cover change process, we proposed a landuse/land-cover simulation model based on the diffusion equation which can express this nonlinear relationship in time and space and form a display change relationship formula while using time and space information
We compared the experimental results between the cellular automaton (CA)–Markov model and the diffusion equation with the same land-use/land-cover data in Shenzhen city
By selecting the same 8 neighborhood and by comparing it with the CA–Markov model, our proposed method performs better in terms of kappa coefficient and overall accuracy. This confirms that the diffusion equation model which we proposed can simulate urban land-use/land-cover changes to a certain extent
Summary
In response to this problem, we started with the physical characteristics of the land-use/land-cover change process and constructed a diffusion equation to simulate and predict urban land-use/landcover changes. As the population grows, unreasonable urban expansion causes soil degradation, land waste, and damage to the ecological environment. These problems in turn restrict people’s related activities and bring about challenges to the sustainable development of cities, especially in housing [3], environment [4,5], climate change [6], infrastructure [7], food security, health, education, decent work, safety, natural resources [8], etc.
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