A Study of Covid-19 Cases using SIR Model in Nepal

Abstract

Due to the growing world population and their mobility all over the world, the risk of infectious disease is high. From 2019, there is a common big issue of COVID-19. Nepal is also a country affected by COVID-19. For the study, the secondary data of COVID-19 from January 2021 to January 2023 were extracted from the Government of Nepal, Ministry of Health, and population Internet sites https://covid19.mohp.gov.np/ or https://heoc.mohp.gov.np, the WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard website: https://www.who.int, and the COVID-Coronavirus Statistics—Worldometer web site: https://www.worldometers.info>coronavirus. The secondary COVID-19 data collected for this study from official offices and sources was analyzed for readability and comprehension. The solution of a renowned model, SIR, was also taken. The computer software MATLAB was used to plot the graphs with the help of parametric values obtained from the real data. From the graphical results, we found that the trend of COVID-19 cases is increasing in May 2020 to November 2020, decreasing in November 2020 to April 2021, increasing in 2021 to June 2021, and decreasing in June 2021 to July 2021. Infected cases are high in November 2020 and in May to June 2021. Recovered cases are high in November to December 2020 and in May to June 2021. We also found that the predicted infected and recovered disease cases from the model are almost matched with the infected and recovered disease cases of real data for COVID-19 in Nepal.