Abstract
The analysis of rainfall records for long period provides information about rainfall pattern and variability. The long term monthly rainfall data for the period 1958-2017 (60 years) was studied. And also rainfall studies are the utmost utility for understanding the nature and behaviour of climate change. In this study, trends in rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity and rainy day for 1958-2017 were examined. Long term data analysed for 60 years (1958-2017) annual data suggest that there is a significant change in rainfall over the last decade. It observed that total mean rainfall June to October but in by 50.04mm last 60 years and annual rainy days decreased by 0.017 mm per year. From the average monthly rainfall analysis, it is observed that rainfall variation for first 20 years (1958-1978) and second 20 years (1979-1999) are similar rainfall pattern whereas it differs for last decade (2000-2017) because of the change in magnitude however the overall trend is similar. Average monthly rainfall analysis indicates there is maximum rainfall in the month of June and minimum rainfall in the month of October.
Highlights
India’s economy is dependent on the agricultural production, which in turn is dependent one of the monsoon rainfall and its distribution
The trend is determined by the relationship between the two variables as rainfall and time
Result and Discussion Trend Analysis of Monthly Mean of Total Mean Rainfall (TMRF) The linear regression trends with their linear regression equations and coefficient of determinations for the months from June to October (Monsoon season) are represented in figure 2. It is evident from figure 2 that monthly mean of TMRF have increased significantly for the months June to October but in July and has increased by 50.04 mm during last 60 years
Summary
India’s economy is dependent on the agricultural production, which in turn is dependent one of the monsoon rainfall and its distribution. The year to year fluctuation in rainfall as well as the fluctuation within the monsoon season governs the crop growth, development and yield. Earlier studies on rainfall probability in India have been carried by many workers (Singh et al, 2009; IMD, 2010 and Halikatti et al, 2010). The main driver of the hydrological cycle, has been varying in part of the world in various ways. Rainfall is the main source of water. Rainfall is scares and erratic in Gujarat especially in Saurashtra region. Its preservation and conservation has become the most important aspect in relation to the water resources
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