A structural model of temporal change in multi-modal travel demand

Abstract

A simultaneous equation model is developed to describe temporal trends and shifts in demand among five modes of passenger transportation in the Netherlands. The modes are car driver, car passenger, train, bicycle, and public transit (bus, tram, and subway). The time period is one year (1984–1985). The data are from the week-long travel diaries at six-month intervals of a national panel of households in the Netherlands. The model explains the weekly trip rates for each mode in terms of three types of relationships: links from demand for the same mode at previous points in time (temporal stability or inertia); links to and from demand for other modes at the same point in time (complementarity and competition on a synchronous basis); and links from demand for other modes at previous points in time (substitution effects). a significant model is found with 15 inertial links, 21 synchronous links, and 16 cross-lag links among the variables. It is proposed in interpretations of the link coefficients and overall effects of one variable on another that relationships among the modes are evolving over time. In particular, the model captures the effect of a public transit fare increase that occurred during the time frame of the panel data.