A Strategy Using Continuous Simulation to Mitigate Effort Estimation Risks in Software Projects

Abstract

The role of project managers has become crucial to thesuccessofsoftwaredevelopmentcompanies,itisimperativeto understand customer requirements while address business needs. In this context, the present work aims to present simulation as a strategy to mitigate fails in software development effort estimation. In doing so, it will activate an outstanding project manager’s asset for risk management. This study used historical data of 181 project from a software company and the simulation package ARENA, to model and evaluation. Results point that the current method of project effort estimation - based on empirical feeling-based estimates of its employees - should be improved with the approach of continuous simulation. The modeling of this simulation provided a better understanding of efforts ranges applied in software developments on this company, and,mostimportant,theamountofrisktakenoneachtotaleffort estimative. This simulator attends the prerogatives of the project risk management area, being able to support decisions regarding schedule, resources bottlenecks and risk taken.