A strategy for investment in space resource utilization

Abstract

During the first quarter of the next Century, space transportation systems will be capable of routine flights of humans and cargo to the Moon. The general acceptance of permanent human presence in space, as exemplified by at least two manned stations in LEO at that time, will lead to one or more staffed outposts on the Moon. Whether such outposts evolve into sustained, growing settlements will depend, in part, on whether the economic context attracts substantial private investment. A planetary surface provides a material and gravitational environment distinct from that of an orbiting space station and thus provides a setting familiar to non-aerospace sectors of terrestrial industry. Examination of current trends in terms of historical processes which operate on new frontiers suggests that the limited markets and unfamiliar technologies associated with space commercialization today may change dramatically in 20 years when lunar resources are accessible. However, the uncertainty and vagueness of such projections discourages investment at a useful scale unless a strategy for technology development can be implemented which provides tangible and marketable benefits in the intermediate term. At the present time technologies can be identified (a) that will be required (and therefore valuable) at the time of lunar settlement and (b) whose development can be planned to yield marketable intermediate products on Earth. Formation of pre-competitive, collaborative research consortia in the industrial sector could reduce technical and economic risk in the early stages and could promote a favorable political environment for the future growth of space activities.