Abstract
AbstractAn analytical framework for probabilistic safety assessment of geological repositories is applied for a high‐level nuclear waste repository. The framework is based on stochastic‐analytical solution techniques and offers a versatile tool for the analysis of various scenarios. Features, events, and processes for a hypothetical repository, geosphere, and biosphere are considered. Explicit solutions in terms of the expected value and variance of the mass flux or cumulative mass flux are derived for each case considered. The uncertainty pertaining to features and events results in increased time spans of elevated hazard levels with possible exceedance of given regulatory criteria. Mass transfer processes, such as sorption and matrix diffusion, may result in significant reductions of radioactivity fluxes and subsequent doses in the biosphere.
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