A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.
- Front Matter
642
- 10.1089/tmj.2020.29040.rb
- Apr 8, 2020
- Telemedicine and e-Health
Peer Reviewed
- Discussion
291
- 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31102-8
- Jan 1, 2020
- Lancet (London, England)
Sharpening the global focus on ethnicity and race in the time of COVID-19
- Research Article
69
- 10.1089/ham.2020.0098
- Aug 17, 2020
- High Altitude Medicine & Biology
Woolcott, Orison O., and Richard N. Bergman. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 in high-altitude populations. High Alt Med Biol. 21:409-416, 2020. Background: Since partial oxygen pressure decreases as altitude increases, environmental hypoxia could worsen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient's hypoxemia. We compared COVID-19 mortality at different altitudes. Methods: Retrospective analysis of population-level data on COVID-19 deaths was conducted in the United States (1,016 counties) and Mexico (567 municipalities). Mixed-model Poisson regression analysis of the association between altitude and COVID-19 mortality was conducted using individual-level data from 40,168 Mexican subjects with COVID-19, adjusting for multiple covariates. Results: Between January 20 and April 13, 2020, mortality rates were higher in U.S. counties located at ≥2,000 m elevation versus those located <1,500 m (12.3 vs. 3.2 per 100,000; p < 0.001). In Mexico, between March 13 and May 13, 2020, mortality rates were higher in municipalities located at ≥2,000 m versus those located <1,500 m (5.3 vs. 3.9 per 100,000; p < 0.001). Among Mexican subjects younger than 65 years, the risk of death was 36% higher in those living at ≥2,000 m versus those living at <1,500 m (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.36; confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05-1.78; p = 0.022). Among Mexican men, the risk of death was 31% higher at ≥2,000 m versus that at <1,500 m (adjusted IRR: 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.66; p = 0.025). No association between altitude and COVID-19 mortality was found among Mexican women or among Mexican subjects 65 years of age and older. Conclusions: Altitude is associated with COVID-19 mortality in men younger than 65 years.
- Research Article
6
- 10.1016/j.amepre.2021.01.017
- Feb 23, 2021
- American Journal of Preventive Medicine
Addressing COVID-19 Using a Public Health Approach: Perspectives From the Cancer Prevention and Control Research Network
- Research Article
1
- 10.1016/j.anai.2020.08.023
- Aug 25, 2020
- Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology
US public health resources for coronavirus disease 2019 that are relevant to allergy-immunology
- Research Article
41
- 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.05.010
- May 19, 2021
- Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Using preprints in evidence synthesis: Commentary on experience during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Discussion
16
- 10.1016/j.yebeh.2020.107154
- May 3, 2020
- Epilepsy & Behavior
CoVID-19 vs. epilepsy: It is time to move, act, and encourage physical exercise
- Front Matter
9
- 10.1161/jaha.121.021764
- Jun 1, 2021
- Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease
Death by COVID‐19: An Open Investigation
- Front Matter
2
- 10.1053/j.jvca.2021.01.052
- Feb 5, 2021
- Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia
Perioperative Cardiac Research Considerations During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2020.05.001
- May 7, 2020
- Journal of Pain and Symptom Management
PC-FACS: COVID-19
- Discussion
37
- 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.08.017
- Aug 14, 2020
- The Journal of infection
Medical features of COVID-19 and influenza infection: A comparative study in Paris, France
- Research Article
5
- 10.1097/mcp.0000000000000771
- Mar 1, 2021
- Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine
Editorial: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - advances in epidemiology, diagnostics, treatments, host-directed therapies, pathogenesis, vaccines, and ongoing challenges.
- Research Article
63
- 10.1089/cyber.2020.0663
- Aug 1, 2021
- Cyberpsychology, behavior and social networking
The novel coronavirus 2019 pandemic has brought about an overabundance of misinformation concerning the virus (SARS-CoV-2) and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) it causes spreading rapidly on social media. While some more obviously untrustworthy sources may be easier for social media filters to identify and remove, an early feature was the cobranding of COVID-19 misinformation with other types of misinformation. To examine this, the top 10 Instagram posts (in English) were collected every day for 10 days (April 21-30th, 2020) for each of the hashtags #hoax, #governmentlies, and #plandemic. The #hoax was selected first as it is commonly used in conspiracy theory posts, and #governmentlies because it was the most commonly cotagged with #hoax. For comparison, we selected #plandemic as the most popular cotagged hashtag that was clearly COVID-19-related. This resulted in 300 Instagram posts available for our analysis. We conducted a content analysis by coding the themes contained in the posts, both for the images and the text caption shared by the Instagram users (including hashtags). The broad theme of general mistrust was the most common, including the idea that the government and/or media has fabricated or hidden information pertaining to COVID-19. Conspiracy theories were the second-most frequent theme among posts. Overall, COVID-19 was frequently presented in association with authority-questioning beliefs. Developing an understanding of how the public shares misinformation on COVID-19 alongside conspiracy theories and authority-questioning statements can aid public health officials and policymakers in limiting the spread of potentially life-threatening health misinformation.
- Supplementary Content
32
- 10.1053/j.ackd.2020.06.005
- Jun 23, 2020
- Advances in Chronic Kidney Disease
COVID-19 and Kidney Disease Disparities in the United States
- Discussion
252
- 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30801-1
- Apr 1, 2020
- The Lancet
Centring sexual and reproductive health and justice in the global COVID-19 response