Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), reclassified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 [14], is an infectious disease caused by a new type of virus belonging to the coronaviruses family and recently named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [4]
We simulate the forecasts of the D-COVID-19 model (1.1), relating the deconfinement strategy adopted by Moroccan authorities with two scenarios
We have proposed a delayed stochastic mathematical model to describe the dynamical spreading of COVID-19 in Morocco by considering all measures designed by authorities, such as confinement and deconfinement policies
Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), reclassified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 [14], is an infectious disease caused by a new type of virus belonging to the coronaviruses family and recently named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [4]. It is absurd to think that the return to the normality is in the near months, because the unavailability of an effective vaccine implies that the virus will always be with us in the near future, which poses a risk for the population This economic deconfinement should be prepared and accompanied by other related measures, in particular under health, security, education and social assistance. While taking into account the deconfinement policies, the environmental effects and the social fluctuations should not be neglected in such a mathematical study in order to describe well the dynamics and consider an additional degree of realism [2, 3, 10, 18, 21] For these reasons, we describe here the dynamics of the deconfinement strategy by a new D-COVID-19 model, governed by delayed stochastic differential equations (DSDE), as follows: dS(t) =.
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