Abstract
If a long earthquake sequence is considered to be a stationary stochastic process, the stored elastic energy of deformation can be shown to be an independent variable in the usual ‘backward’ equation. Three unknown probability functions are introduced: the probability that the stored energy of deformation is at a certain level; the probability that, if this energy is at a given level, an earthquake will occur; and the transition probability that, if the earthquake occurs, the final energy state will be at a certain level. It is assumed that the frequency‐energy distribution is known. The equations can be solved, if the transition probability is assumed to be known; and they have been solved for the model in which the transition probability is a function of the energy released in the shock but is not otherwise dependent on the final energy state. In this case, the results can be used to describe the earthquake history for some time after a great shock, and possibly for times just before a great shock. The results have some features of inconsistency with observations.
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