A stochastic mathematical model of two different infectious epidemic under vertical transmission.

Abstract

In this study, considering the effect of environment perturbation which is usually embodied by the alteration of contact infection rate, we formulate a stochastic epidemic mathematical model in which two different kinds of infectious diseases that spread simultaneously through both horizontal and vertical transmission are described. To indicate our model is well-posed and of biological significance, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solution at the beginning. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions (which can be used to prove the stability of a certain fixed point in a dynamical system or autonomous differential equation) and applying Itô's formula as well as Chebyshev's inequality, we also establish the sufficient conditions for stochastic ultimate boundedness. Furthermore, when some main parameters and all the stochastically perturbed intensities satisfy a certain relationship, we finally prove the stochastic permanence. Our results show that the perturbed intensities should be no greater than a certain positive number which is up-bounded by some parameters in the system, otherwise, the system will be surely extinct. The reliability of theoretical results are further illustrated by numerical simulations. Finally, in the discussion section, we put forward two important and interesting questions left for further investigation.