A stochastic integral equation analog of rainfall-runoff processes for evaluating modeling uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event.