A stochastic estimation of sediment production in an urban catchment using the USLE model

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe goals of this study were to map the spatial distribution of sediment production and to estimate the probability of this production at the waterline based on a high potential of silting. The RUSLE-GIS model and Monte Carlo simulation were used. A sensitivity analysis of stochastic factors was performed by calculating the simple correlation coefficient. This procedure was applied to the Estrada Nova catchment, located in the city of Belém, northern Brazil, which has been subject to channel improvements and the construction of a detention basin. The results indicate that, following the urbanization and drainage improvements, there was a reduction in the annual sediment production probability, which is consistent with the dynamics in land use. The erodibility was the most sensitive factor in the sedimentation estimates. The methodology was considered an alternative to estimate sediment production in an urban catchment.