Abstract
AbstractIn this paper we consider a modification of Bailey's stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic when there are seasonal variations in infection rate. The resulting nonlinear model is analyzed by employing the diffusion approximation technique. We have shown that for a large population the process, on suitable scaling and normalization, converges to a non‐stationary Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process. Consequently the number of infectives has in the steady state a gaussian distribution.
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