A stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy storage states for reservoir operations

Abstract

Application of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) models to reservoir optimization calls for state variables discretization. Reservoir storage volume is an important variable whose discretization has a pronounced effect on the computational efforts. The error caused by storage volume discretization is examined by considering it as a fuzzy state variable. In this approach, the point-to-point transitions between storage volumes at the beginning and end of each period are replaced by transitions between storage intervals. This is achieved by using fuzzy arithmetic operations with fuzzy numbers. In this approach, instead of aggregating single-valued crisp numbers, the membership functions of fuzzy numbers are combined. Running a simulation model with optimal release policies derived from fuzzy and non-fuzzy SDP models shows that a fuzzy SDP with a coarse discretization scheme performs as well as a classical SDP having much finer discretized space. It is believed that this advantage in the fuzzy SDP model is due to the smooth transitions between storage intervals which benefit from soft boundaries.