Abstract
Abstract Shrubs dominate the early seral communities that develop following clearcutting and burning in the moist coniferous forests of northern Idaho. Establishment is immediate and quite variable. Establishment success depends on burn severity, reproductive mode, and the vegetation existing before the burn. The complexity of early succession and the consequent difficulty of predicting species composition following disturbance can be overcome with a relatively simple modeling approach. Compound probability distributions are used to describe both establishment and change in percent canopy cover for early seral shrubcommunities. The statistical parameters of these compound distributions are simulated through time to represent annual growth. After several years, growth is essentially deterministic. The model successfully simulates canopy cover development of ten common and abundant shrub species during the first 15 years following clearcutting and burning.
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