A Stochastic Approach To Occupant Pre-movement In Fires

Abstract

A stochastic model has been developed to estimate the pre-movement time of occupants in a fire situation. The model quantifies the response and delay periods using probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model takes into account both the occupants and building characteristics. The times spent on various delay actions by the occupant are treated as random variables with prescribed distribution functions. When a delay action is related to a quantifiable occupant or building characteristic, the associated parameter is also assumed to be a random parameter and the appropriate governing distribution is assigned. The model produces, for a given building design and occupant group, the probability distribution of pre-movement time and the related parameters. The results of simulation runs are presented in this paper. The results correlate reasonably well with the data obtained from the literature. Sensitivity studies are also carried out and the regression and correlation are analysed.