A stochastic approach for integrating market and technical uncertainties in economic evaluations of petroleum development

Abstract

The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients.