Abstract
Sea water intrusion into a brackish water lake is a stochastic phenomenon because the water levels of the ocean and the lake are incidentally fluctuated by weather condition. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed to simulate the time series of the water levels by using AR formulation in order to estimate the frequency and the intensity of the sea water intrusion into Lake Ogawara in a long term.The result of the stochastic simulation for thirty years, together with the conservation law of salinity, successfully estimated the averaged salinity concentration in the lake.
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