A Stepwise Approach of Factors Affecting Agricultural Production in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper is to study area harvested, number of people employed and quantity of fertilizer used as factors that affect agricultural crop production in Nigeria. The best variable selection/stepwise method is used to determine the factor(s) that contributed more to crop production in Nigeria. The factors were the explanatory variables and crop production was the response variable. Steps were taken to be able to identify the individual factors contribution to the crop production and possibly the combination of factors contribution to crop production. This is in order to determine the factor(s) to give more attention to increase crop production for lucrative investment in agriculture and food security. The analysis revealed that area of land harvested contributed most significantly to crop output (production) in Nigeria in overall comparison to fertilizer and number of people employed. The area of land harvested and number of people employed as one set of factors that influence crop production gives higher effect on crop production than using another set of factors as area of land harvested and quantity of fertilizer. The models with the two sets of factors were not significant leading to the fact that the major contributor to crop production in Nigeria is area of land harvested. This is pointing to the fact that the labour force is enough to transform the agricultural crop production sector in Nigeria if more land is acquired for agriculture with an improved technology. The stakeholders in agricultural sector in Nigeria are to expand the harvested land especially when the country has not developed to the extent of full agricultural mechanization.