A ‘Steppe’ into the Void: Central Asia in the Post-oil World

Abstract

AbstractKazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are petrostates and therefore trapped by the global energy transition. This chapter delves into the nexus between the effects of the energy transition, international stability and regime stability in Central Asia’s fossil-fuel dominated economies—a nexus of increasing theoretical and policy relevance as we enter a post-oil era in world politics. The Central Asian hydrocarbon producers are torn between their own aspirations to shift to a low-carbon economy and the vested interests of their elites, which are embedded in fossil-fuel dependency. Despite making international commitments to energy transition and developing policy frameworks to expand the renewable energy sector, the Central Asian petrostates have continued using foreign policy to seek fossil fuel revenue by forging new international trade and investment relations outside of the region. The chapter particularly highlights an under-researched aspect of the global energy transition, namely the role of informal elites in influencing foreign policy strategies, and in undermining energy transitions at the local level in doing so.