Abstract
Abstract Current studies in global mean sea level, GMSL, studies assess the closure/misclosure of the GMSL budget components and their uncertainties. Because Earth’s hydrosphere conserves water, a closed global mean sea level budget with a consistent set of estimates and their statistics is necessary. An unclosed budget means that there are problems to be addressed such as biases in the budget components, unreliable error statistics about the estimates, unknown or known but unmodeled budget components. In a misclosed global mean sea level budget, as practiced in recent studies, the trend estimates for the budget components and their errors account only for the anomalies of each budget component in isolation. On the other hand, the trend of each series must consider the trends of the other series in tandem such that the global mean sea level budget is closed for a holistic assessment, which can only be achieved by adjusting global mean sea level budget components simultaneously. In this study, we demonstrate a statistical protocol to ameliorate this deficiency, which potentially have implications for future sea level science studies, including the future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, and the US Climate Assessment Reports.
Highlights
It is imperative to better understand and improve the current global mean sea level, (GMSL) budget with a consistent set of estimates for its components, with the goal to di erentiate anthropogenic contributions to the climateOcean thermal expansion and halosteric contraction, ice sheet, mountain glacier and ice cap mass balance, changes in terrestrial and surface and ground water storage, anthropogenic impoundment of waters in dams, and to a much lesser importance, permafrost degradation, snow and atmospheric water vapor change, are all identied as major components of geophysical contributions to the present-day global mean sea-level variations
The trend of each series must consider the trends of the other series in tandem such that the global mean sea level budget is closed for a holistic assessment, which can only be achieved by adjusting global mean sea level budget components simultaneously
We demonstrate a statistical protocol to ameliorate this de ciency, which potentially have implications for future sea level science studies, including the future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, and the US Climate Assessment Reports
Summary
It is imperative to better understand and improve the current global mean sea level, (GMSL) budget with a consistent set of estimates for its components, with the goal to di erentiate anthropogenic contributions to the climate. Current practice of evaluating GMSL budget is to quantify the linear rate of change of its geophysical contributions (components) from various sources, and to calculate the misclosure of the budget (deviation from zero) together with the error of the misclosure (WCRP, 2018). We propose and demonstrate a statistical protocol to ameliorate this ambiguity by adjusting previously estimated trends of the budget components and their uncertainties within a period with a GMSL budget closure constraint. The readjustment of the velocities of the budget components does not mean that the underlying sources of errors leading to the misclosure were eliminated, but its components and their uncertainties are reassessed under the GMSL budget closure constraint
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