Abstract
This study aims to provide both a model by using cumulative cases and cumulative death toll for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) outbreak in four countries, China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey, starting from the first diagnosis and to compare associated indicators. The most successful estimation was obtained from the cubic model with natural logarithm for China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey. The success of the models was around 99%. However, differences began to emerge in China, Italy, and South Korea after the second week. Although the highest number of new cases per 1 million people in China was 9.8 on February 28, 2020; it was 108.4 on March 21, 2020, in Italy; and this was 16.6 on March 5, 2020, in South Korea. On the other hand, the number of new cases was 24.6 per 1 million people on March 27, 2020, in Turkey. The log-cubic model proposed in this study has been set forth to obtain successful results for aforementioned countries, as well as to estimate the course of the COVID-19 outbreak. Other factors such as climacteric factors and genetic differences, which may have an impact on viral spreading and transmission, would also have strengthened the model prediction capacity.
Highlights
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) outbreak has become the main concern for public health emergency for the countries in the northern hemisphere.[1]
This study aims to develop a model by means of the data from China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey, by using cumulative cases and cumulative death toll starting from the diagnosis of the first case in each country
When the results are examined, the outbreak is expected to end in the second week of April in China and in the beginning of April in South Korea
Summary
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) outbreak has become the main concern for public health emergency for the countries in the northern hemisphere.[1] After starting in Chinese city of Wuhan on December 31, 2019, scientific research has focused on whether the disease will remain limited in a particular area with a small number of patients as were in SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus) outbreaks. Artificial intelligence tools based on machine learning and mathematical models are being used to estimate the nature of the spread across each country, and to detect the potential amplifiers hampering the effects of the epidemic.[2]. This study aims to develop a model by means of the data from China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey, by using cumulative cases and cumulative death toll starting from the diagnosis of the first case in each country
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