A statistical model for predicting the probability of complaints from army weapons noise

Abstract

U.S. Army environmental noise assessments use a statistical average (DNL) to evaluate the impact of heavy weapons noise on nearby residents, but experience has shown that variability above the average is the source of complaints. To assist environmental planners and range control officers in predicting complaints from a specific configuration of range and weapon, a BASIC language program short enough for a personal computer has been developed. Users begin by choosing the weapon from a menu and after defining the coordinates of the firing point, target, and observer, they have the option of: (1) entering a noise level and receiving the probability of that level being exceeded at the observer's location, or (2) entering an exceedance level and receiving the noise level associated with that exceedance level. Noise levels are then compared with the criteria used in the successful complaint management program at the Naval Surface Weapons Laboratory, Dahlgren. Onsite blast noise measurements taken over the past decade are used to demonstrate the predictive validity of the model.