Abstract
An extreme value (Gumbel) distribution was evaluated as a model of maximum run-out distances of avalanches in southwest Montana defined in terms of dimensionless ratios. The run-out ratios are defined relative to an arbitrarily defined reference point. The development and analysis of the statistical model were based on data taken from surveys of 24 avalanche paths. The technique bears promise as a user-friendly tool; however, due to the small vertical drop of avalanches in southwest Montana, the model appears to be quite sensitive to measurement errors in the field. This sensitivity also seems to depend on the definition of the reference point. Comparison with models developed for other mountain ranges indicates that models developed for one range cannot be used to estimate accurately maximum avalanche run-out distances in other mountain ranges until influencing factors are better understood.
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