A Statistical Method for Generating Temporally Downscaled Geochemical Tracers in Precipitation

Abstract

AbstractSampling intervals of precipitation geochemistry measurements are often coarser than those required by fine-scale hydrometeorological models. This study presents a statistical method to temporally downscale geochemical tracer signals in precipitation so that they can be used in high-resolution, tracer-enabled applications. In this method, we separated the deterministic component of the time series and the remaining daily stochastic component, which was approximated by a conditional multivariate Gaussian distribution. Specifically, statistics of the stochastic component could be explained from coarser data using a newly identified power-law decay function, which relates data aggregation intervals to changes in tracer concentration variance and correlations with precipitation amounts. These statistics were used within a copula framework to generate synthetic tracer values from the deterministic and stochastic time series components based on daily precipitation amounts. The method was evaluated at 27 sites located worldwide using daily precipitation isotope ratios, which were aggregated in time to provide low resolution testing datasets with known daily values. At each site, the downscaling method was applied on weekly, biweekly and monthly aggregated series to yield an ensemble of daily tracer realizations. Daily tracer concentrations downscaled from a biweekly series had average (+/- standard deviation) absolute errors of 1.69‰ (1.61‰) for δ2H and 0.23‰ (0.24‰) for δ18O relative to observations. The results suggest coarsely sampled precipitation tracers can be accurately downscaled to daily values. This method may be extended to other geochemical tracers in order to generate downscaled datasets needed to drive complex, fine-scale models of hydrometeorological processes.